• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar

Jon Luskin, CFP® ● Hourly Advice for Do-It-Yourself Investors

Hourly Advice for Do-It-Yourself Investors

  • Home
  • About
  • Work with Jon
  • Blog
  • Bogleheads® Live
  • Publications
  • Speaking
  • Reading List

When Should You Take Your RMD?

March 15, 2018 By Jon Luskin Leave a Comment

Recently, a client asked if they should be taking their RMDs at the beginning of the year. Given the market’s recent upward performance, a market correction is due, thought the client. By that logic, it should make sense to take the RMD sooner rather than later, right? Perhaps, let’s see what the numbers say.

I looked at annual stock returns from 1926 to 2016. For this, I used the CRSP 1-10 data. Here’s what I found:

  • % of times that the stock market return was greater than 0%: ~75% (this is different than the 2/3 metric for lump-sum investing outperformance)
  • % of times that the market return was less than 0%: ~25%

Said another way, there’s a roughly three out of four (~3/4) chance that stocks will be higher at the end of the year compared to the beginning of the year. By that logic, you’re usually better off keeping your money in the market.

It’s pretty clear that the odds are favorable to keeping your money in the market for as long as possible.

However, looking at any individual year may be misleading. So, let’s stretch out the timeline.

RMDs on 30-Year Rolling

Here are the results on 30 years of rolling data for the same time period:

  • 30-year rolling, % of times that doing RMDs at the beginning of year meant earning more money over doing RMDs at end of year: 0%
  • 30-year rolling, % of times that doing RMDs in either strategy ran out of money: 0%
  • 30-year rolling, median & average superior wealth terminal when doing RMDs at year end over doing RMDs at beginning of the year: 24%

Twenty-four percent. That’s 24% more money by doing RMDs at year end.

Said another way, the difference isn’t even close. On a 30-year timeline, there’s not a single data point that makes a case for doing RMDs at the beginning of the year.

RMD Timing in a Diversified Portfolio of Stocks & Bonds

I shared the above findings with a fellow investment nerd, Steven Rocha. He reached the same conclusions as the above. Moreover, he offered a successive analysis. Here are his cliff notes:

  • It’s better to take the RMD at the end of the year over a 30-year time frame, no matter what percentage of stocks (or bonds) is in a portfolio.
  • Over 20 years (is everyone going to live to be 100?), it turns out that it has ALWAYS been better to take your RMD at the end of the year over a 20-year time frame.
  • Over 10 years, it is sometimes better to take the RMD in the beginning, if the portfolio has more than 60% of stocks.  BUT, doing so only lead to an outperformance of 1.9% in the best year, while taking the RMD at the end of the year could have lead to a 25% outperformance for the best 10-year period.

In short, it may make sense to make RMDs at the end of the year – rather than at the beginning of the year. The reason why is the same reason we invest in the stock markets in the first place: the stock market goes up in value over time!

 

Reader Interactions

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Primary Sidebar

Is a Portfolio 2nd Opinion Right for You?

Get Your Free Assessment ➔

Get in Touch with Jon Luskin, CFP®

  • Email
  • LinkedIn
  • Twitter

Sign Up for New Blog Posts Delivered to Your Inbox

What I’m Reading Right Now

Recent Posts

  • Bogleheads® Live ep. 8: Dr. William J. Bernstein on investing simplicity
  • How to Use Insurance
  • Bogleheads® Live ep. 7: Eric Balchunas on “The Bogle Effect”
  • Bogleheads® Live ep. 6: Dr. Sunil Wahal on hidden mutual fund costs
  • Bogleheads® Live Ep 5: Christine Benz on correlations & sustainable distributions

Categories

  • Bogleheads® Live
  • Continuity, Succession & Exit Planning
  • Financial Planning
  • Investing
  • Practice Management
  • Real Estate Investing
  • Tax Planning

Jon Luskin, CFP® Follow

Hourly Advice for Do-It-Yourself Investors. "@Bogleheads® Live" host. Advice-Only #CFP®. #fiduciary. @SDFLC volunteer. Tweets ≠ Advice. https://t.co/GJqMxe3Uoj

JonLuskin
jonluskin Jon Luskin, CFP® @jonluskin ·
51m

Asset managers make their money charging fees - and not by delivering performance.

If an investor is looking to increase their investment return, their best bet is to decrease their fees.

#investing

Reply on Twitter 1541421241076256772 Retweet on Twitter 1541421241076256772 Like on Twitter 1541421241076256772 Twitter 1541421241076256772
jonluskin Jon Luskin, CFP® @jonluskin ·
19h

Talking bond correlation with @christine_benz was a treat!

#investing

IRA Owner's Manual @IRAOwnersManual

Bogleheads® Live Ep 5: Christine Benz on correlations & sustainable distributions #PFshare via @jonluskin https://jonluskin.com/bogleheads-live-ep-5-christine-benz-on-correlations-sustainable-distributions/

Reply on Twitter 1541140028629233664 Retweet on Twitter 1541140028629233664 1 Like on Twitter 1541140028629233664 4 Twitter 1541140028629233664
jonluskin Jon Luskin, CFP® @jonluskin ·
21h

"Don't use a SEP IRA. Use an individual #401k instead."

Good advice from Jim Dahle (@wcinvestor).

Generally, an individual 401K is going to make more sense.

🤓

https://buff.ly/3LxS2K2

Reply on Twitter 1541119149098909697 Retweet on Twitter 1541119149098909697 1 Like on Twitter 1541119149098909697 4 Twitter 1541119149098909697
Load More

Is the Portfolio 2nd Opinion right for you?


Get Your Free Assessment ➔

Disclosures & Legal

Jon Luskin is a registered investment adviser in the states of Arizona, California, Florida, Louisiana, Massachusetts, New York, North Carolina, Texas, Virginia and Washington. The Adviser may not transact business in states where it is not appropriately registered, excluded or exempted from registration. Individualized responses to persons that involve either the effecting of transaction in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, will not be made without registration or exemption.

Copyright © 2022